Demand Forecasting, Capacity Investments, and Cost Management Solutions

Some key considerations facing hospitals when planning current and future delivery of health care services are:

• What could happen to cardiac admissions as a result of new prescription drug treatments?
• What will be the affect of cardiac MRI use?
• What affect will drug-coated stents have on cardiac readmissions, and thus, overall cardiac admissions?
• Is the over age 65 population expected to grow faster in my market than the national average?
• What long term effects could newly penetrated medical technology have on my business?
• Should I change my future contracting strategy as a result of anticipated shifts in my service line demand?

The Reden & Anders and Ingenix significant health care claims database is used to create:

• Projections of estimated inpatient and outpatient annual utilization per thousand population by age and gender, as well as by payer type (i.e., commercial insurance, Medicare, and Medicaid)
• Utilization trends that take into account the affects of new and emerging medical technologies and drug treatments

Once baseline forecasts of market specific medical utilization rates are determined, total market demand is estimated by applying census population data, segmented by commercial insured, Medicare, and Medicaid eligible. The next steps in the planning process include:

• Identify areas for capital investment
• Develop forecasts of your own market share shifts based on investment and strategy implementation
• Model the financial impact of forecasted gain/loss
• Model the affect of changing contracting strategies with payers based on perceptions of shifts or growth in markets within key service lines

Reden & Anders actuarial consultants can provide a unique analytical skill set to the hospital provider community as it relates to assessing the needs for future delivery of health care in the United States.